Almost 13 million smoking deaths could be prevented in China by 2050

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China is home to about one third of the world’s smokers and reducing smoking in China could have an enormous public health impact, even on a global scale.Even though China raised the tax on tobacco products in 2009, this did not translate to higher retail prices for consumers and the only ban that has been enforced is on public transport. WHO went on to publish a report in 2011 which stated that there were multiple opportunities to improve tobacco control.Using a version of the SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy model (a model of tobacco smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths), populated with data from China, researchers from Spain, France and the US estimated the potential health impact of this programme in China from 2015 — 2050.Under current policies, a total of over 50 million deaths due to smoking were estimated from 2012 to 2050.Projecting the status quo scenario forward, the researchers estimate that active smoking in males would fall from 51.3% in 2015 to 46.5% by 2050 — and in females from 2.1% in 2015 to 1.3% in 2050In 2015, the estimated number of deaths from smoking was about one million (932,000 for males and 79,000 for females). In males, annual deaths were expected to peak at 1.5 million in 2040, but then drop to 1.4 million by 2050. In females, annual deaths from smoking were estimated to be 49,000 in 2040 and 42,000 by 2050.Relative to the status quo scenario, increasing cigarette taxes to 75% of the package price was estimated to reduce smoking prevalence by almost 10% for both males and females by 2015. By 2050, smoking prevalence showed a reduction of 13% for males and 12% for females. The researchers estimate that between 2015 and 2050, this tax would save approximately 3.5 million lives.Smoke-free air laws and a well enforced marketing ban also showed “potent and immediate” effects. Comprehensive smoke-free air laws were estimated to show a 9% reduction in smoking rates by 2015, increasing to about a 10% reduction in 2050, potentially averting around 3.4 million deaths. A comprehensive marketing ban would reduce smoking prevalence by about 4% and avert just over two million deaths by 2050.A high intensity tobacco control campaign would lead to a 2.5% relative decline in smoking rates by 2015 and prevent 1.1 million deaths due to smoking by 2050, while stronger health warnings were projected to yield a relative 2.3% reduction in smoking rates by 2050.The researchers estimate that complete implementation of the WHO framework “would lead to as much as a 34% relative reduction in male smoking prevalence by 2020, and a 41% reduction by 2050.” They say, despite the lag time expected between reductions in current smoking and declines in smoking attributable deaths, nearly half a million annual tobacco related deaths could be averted yearly by 2050.These estimates suggest that substantial health gains could be made, say the authors — a 40% relative reduction in smoking prevalence and almost 13 million smoking attributable deaths averted and more than 154 million life years gained by 2050 — by extending effective public health and clinical interventions to reduce active smoking. They add that these policies would be cost effective and say that “without the implementation of the complete set of stronger policies, the death and disability legacy of current smoking will endure for decades in China.”Story Source:The above story is based on materials provided by BMJ-British Medical Journal. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


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Threat of hidden crop pest to poorer nations revealed

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The abundance of crop pests in developing countries may be greatly underestimated, posing a significant threat to some of the world’s most important food producing nations, according to research led by the University of Exeter.Data on the known distributions of almost 2,000 crop-destroying organisms in 195 countries were analyzed in the first global assessment of the factors determining the distribution of crop pests.Dr Dan Bebber and Professor Sarah Gurr, of Biosciences at the University of Exeter, found that if all countries had levels of scientific and technical capacity similar to the developed world, the number of pests reported would rise greatly and the true extent of the threat would be better understood.Many developing countries are expected to harbor hundreds of unreported crop pests and diseases, based on current levels of agricultural productivity.Around one sixth of the world’s agricultural production is lost to destructive organisms annually, with further losses post-harvest.Crop pests are often introduced by human activities such as trade and travel, with the wealth of a country linked to the number of invasive species recorded there because — whilst growing rich through trade — they have also accidentally imported pests in agricultural produce.But this study also considered the link between the wealth of a country (by per capita GDP) and its ability to detect, identify and report the number of crop pests present.Developing countries are less likely to have the capacity to observe invasive species than affluent, technologically-advanced nations.The researchers used data collated from published literature over many decades by the inter-governmental, not-for-profit organization CABI and made available from its Plantwise knowledge bank.Using GDP and scientific output as indicators of pest detection capacity, the study found that the pest load of the developing world appears to be greatly underestimated, and that this lack of knowledge may be severely hampering crop protection in some of the world’s most important food producing nations.Dr Dan Bebber said: “Crop pests pose a significant and growing threat to food security, but their geographical distributions are poorly understood.”"Country wealth is likely to be a strong indicator of observational capacity, not just trade flow, as has been interpreted in previous studies of invasive species. If every country had US-levels of per capita GDP, then on average countries woul d be reporting more than 200 additional pests and diseases. This suggests that enhanced investment in pest observations will reveal the hidden threat of crop pests and pathogens, as well as bring into focus the opportunity to lose less of the crop by appropriate pest control. The first step to solving crop losses is to identify the pests responsible.”The largest numbers of crop pests were reported by the USA, followed by India, China, France and Japan. Island nations reported more pests than coastal and landlocked nations, and the number of pests increased slightly with rainfall.Professor Sarah Gurr added: “This follows hot on the heels of our recent paper showing that pests and pathogens are on the move in the face of climate change. When coupled to this study we can see that many nations are underestimating pest and pathogen loads. Taken collectively, these papers draw attention not only to the threat of crop disease, and thus global food security, but also to our need for more trained pathologists to inform policy.”Story Source:The above story is based on materials provided by University of Exeter. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.


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